Incorporating complexity is essential for driving farm system change

Abstract Agricultural transformation is imperative to achieve environmental and social objectives. However, the complexity and variety of agricultural systems, and the myriad factors impacting farmer decision-making often hinder policy efficacy. Our research provides a new, integrated perspective on this issue, using a model that incorporates the complexities of both farmers and farm systems to enable more complete explanatory mechanisms for policy success and failure. We unpack a hierarchy of barriers to change, noting how those barriers interact, including exposition of previously ill-understood factors (e.g., farmer psychology). Via inclusion of social and complex system dynamics, we also show how policy bundles can exploit tipping-point dynamics. Our findings provide an explanation for disparate agricultural system outcomes, demonstrating the crucial role of farmer psychology and system-level dynamics in the success or failure of regenerative policies. This underscores the need for tailored, multi-faceted policy approaches in promoting sustainable agriculture.