An audit of corporate decarbonisation ambition against low-carbon futures.

Abstract Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration has been steadily increasing since the 19th century, causing global warming. Despite global efforts to reduce emissions, current projections indicate that we are on track for a significant increase in global mean temperature by the end of the century, which may push us beyond a safe and just operating space. It is crucial that we develop robust emissions pathways that take into account renewable technology innovation, climate policy development and consumer behavior change. Emissions forecasting typically relies on atmospheric measurements or estimates of consumption and industry activity. Here, we present an alternative approach that makes use of data disclosed by companies, showing that short-term corporate targets are consistent with the aggressive reduction requirements of the NGFS divergent net-zero scenario, however commitments to 2050 are lacking. Furthermore, there is a large disparity between the total market cap of disclosing companies and the total emissions they cover, indicating biases in emissions reporting. We highlight the significance of individual target pathways, as companies maintaining emissions at present values accrue significant emissions debt. Overall, we provide valuable insights into emissions reduction efforts and contribute to a more robust understanding of reduction pathways.