Predicting the value of Chinese patents using patent characteristics: evidence based on a Chinese patent auction

Abstract This study revisits the question of predicting patent value with observed patent statistics, exploiting a rare public auction of patents in China in which the starting prices are used as approximates of patent private value. Family size and the number of assignees come out as the most consistent indicators, while notably, forward citations turn out to be not important. This discrepancy with past studies is investigated. We propose some of the institutional features in the Chinese patent system could lead to the forward citations not as informative as their counterpart in other jurisdictions. The findings bear important implications as Chinese patent data are increasingly being used in innovation studies.