Коррупция и революционная дестабилизация: опыт количественного анализа

The scholars of revolutionary destabilization factors until today have sufficiently studied such revolution onset factors as political regime types, economic growth rates and GDP per capita levels. However, corruption as a destabilization factor remains understudied despite the anti-corruption slogans frequently seen during protest activities. As a number of studies indicates, corruption might have a positive effect on regime stability through the mechanism of counter-elites cooptation and a negative effect by lowering the state effectiveness and increasing inequality. We test the hypotheses on the presence and the direction of possible effects of various corruption types on the one hand, as well as armed and unarmed revolutionary destabilization on the other. Having conducted correlation analysis of the relationship, we come to a conclusion on the fairly significant positive correlation between all corruption and revolutionary destabilization types. Using cross-tables we have also found that armed and unarmed destabilization has different relations with corruption: the relations are more linear for armed revolutionary uprisings and curvilinear for the unarmed. The results of this research allow drawing some conclusions of theoretical nature with regards to corruption influence on various revolutionary destabilization types and confirm the necessity to account for corruption in the quantitative models of revolutionary destabilization factors. The causal mechanisms between the two phenomena, however, require further scrutiny. In conclusion, we present a number of questions for discussion that might become a base for further research on the nexus between corruption and revolutionary destabilization.