A model for predicting low progesterone levels on the day of embryo transfer in hormonally prepared vitrified‐warmed embryo transfer cycles: A secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study

To develop a model that predicts low progesterone (P) levels on the day of embryo transfer (ET) based on patient and cycle characteristics, including serum estradiol (E2 ) concentration after vaginal administration of micronized E2 for endometrial preparation.A prospective cohort of 193 patients scheduled for cryopreserved blastocyst transfer during an artificial endometrial preparation cycle, using micronized E2 vaginally for first 4 days (4 mg/day), followed by oral administration (6 mg/day). Blood sampling for E2 was performed prospectively on day-5 of vaginal administration and analysis was performed retrospectively. On sixth day of P treatment (daily 300 mg of vaginal micronized P tablets), P levels were measured on ET day. Primary outcome measure was serum P levels after vaginal E2 administration.Patients with low P levels on the day of ET (<7.8 ng/mL, 25th percentile) were heavier (p < 0.001) and exhibited lower day 5 serum E2 levels (p < 0.001) compared with patients with adequate P levels. Multivariate linear regression analysis revealed that weight (p = 0.003) and day 5 E2 levels (p < 0.001) were independently associated with the P levels. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values (%) were 71.4, 55.6, 35.4, and 85.1 for weight ≥ 65 kg; 71.4, 61.8, 38.9, and 86.4 for day 5 E2 ≤ 1615 pg/mL; 59.2, 83.3, 54.7, and 85.7 for the combination of these two variables; and 82.9, 62.5, 54.7, and 87.0 for the sequential inclusion of these variables, respectively.Low day 5 E2 levels following vaginal administration and high weight are independently associated with low P levels on the day of ET. Predictive performance is enhanced when these variables are considered sequentially or in combination.