On the Electrification of Winter Season in Cold Climate Megacities-The Case of New York City

Abstract Cities are accelerating policies to electrify their energy sectors as a key strategy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In densely populated cities with cold climates, the building sector often accounts for over 70% of total energy consumption during winter seasons. In such cold climate megacities, the common practice for heating building spaces involves burning oil or gas. A major shift from this conventional approach toward electric-based heating technologies could have far-reaching implications. In this work, we focus on New York City (NYC), where buildings account for over 75% of the total energy consumption used during winter seasons. The city has adopted policies aimed at achieving deep decarbonization by targeting buildings as a primary source of emissions. We evaluate the potential energy infrastructure and environmental impacts of such major shifts by focusing on the adoption of air-source heat pumps from natural gas boilers. The Weather Research and Forecasting model, coupled with a multilayer building environment parameterization and building energy model, is used to perform this analysis. A city-scale case study was performed over the winter month of January 2021. Simulation results show good agreement with surface weather stations. We show that a shift of heating systems from gas to electricity results in an equivalent peak energy demand from 21,500 MW to 5800 MW, while reducing the peak urban heat island (UHI) by 2.5–3 °C. Results highlight potential trade-offs in adaptation strategies for cities, which may be necessary in the context of increasing decarbonization policies.