Patterns of occurrence of the sub-Antarctic fur seal Arctocephalus tropicalis (Gray 1872) in Southern Brazil: climatic and environmental associations

This study presents the pattern of occurrence of sub-Antarctic fur seals (SAFS), Arctocephalus tropicalis, in the southern Brazilian coast and evaluate its association with climatic variability and anomalies in the concentration of chlorophytes and sea surface temperature in the reproductive colonies of Gough and Tristan da Cunha Islands. Date, sex, and age class of 254 stranded SAFS recorded between 1992 and 2013 were analyzed. Representative indexes of the patterns of climatic variability and environmental variables were obtained between four and five months before the records, the assumed interval of displacement for species between their closest breeding colonies and the southern Brazilian coast. The species was observed in southern Brazil between May and November each year, and most individuals were adult males. The records of SAFS on the southern Brazilian coast were associated with low concentration of chlorophytes interacting with negative sea surface temperature anomalies, and positive events of South Annular Mode, South Atlantic Ocean Dipole and Indian Ocean Dipole. Climatic variability is influencing the ecology SAFS, because it affects the environmental factors, that act as a driver of dispersion of the species. These variables had been interacting together in the region of the breeding colonies, and possibly during the fur seals’ journey towards the Brazilian coast. Considering the current scenario of global climate change, we expect that SAFS will continue to disperse to areas beyond their regular distribution, not only in the direction of the coasts of southern continents, but also further south, towards higher latitudes.