Participatory scenario planning as a useful method for transforming ocean conflicts: Insights from a small-scale fishing conflict in Sao Paulo coast, Brazil

There are several initiatives towards the science-policy interface and the co-production of knowledge, but there is still few methodological and empirically grounded guidance helping scientists to design and implement research that actively facilitate transformative changes in ocean conflicts. In this paper, we explore the potential of the participatory scenario planning tool in the transformation of a conflict case on small-scale fishing in Brazil. We highlight the lessons learned, potential, and challenges of the scenario planning approach for conflict transformation. Despite being an approach widely applied to coastal and marine environmental and management issues, the scenarios methodology has not been explicitly applied in conflict situations, with the parties in dispute, as we did. Our methodological approach consisted of a previous research stage, based on documental analysis, direct observation of meetings and semi-structured interviews, followed by a participatory scenario planning workshop. Our results show that the participatory scenario planning was able to find the common desires as well as the uncertainties that generated doubts, mistrust, and in many moments disagreements among different groups of stakeholders that were in conflict. Previous research and the employment of multiple methods to build the history of the conflict contributed to legitimate researchers' positionality, to know the parties involved and the power dynamics. We raised some questions to advance the understanding of how the participatory scenarios planning contribute to transforming ocean conflicts in a more critical and politicized view.