Atmospheric effects are stronger than soil moisture in restricting net CO₂ uptake of managed grasslands in New Zealand

Climate change is exposing agricultural systems to more frequent weather extremes, threatening production and challenging the sustainability of current management practices. However, isolating the climatic drivers of CO2 exchange in managed systems can be complicated by the periodic removal of aboveground biomass through grazing or harvesting, abruptly shifting the potential for plant uptake and associated ecosystem biogeochemistry. We used eddy covariance datasets from managed grasslands across New Zealand to determine the relative effects of temperature, vapour pressure deficit, and soil moisture on net CO2 uptake. Using time since grazing or harvest as a proxy for above-ground biomass, we accounted for the shifting potential CO2 exchange associated with these management actions. We then fit light response curves to the outer envelope of data to estimate maximal potential NEE, and subsequently calculate NEE deficit for every measured half hour. Using this analytical framework, we combined data from seven locations making up sixteen individual flux datasets comprising >600 site months and found that high air temperature and vapour pressure deficit were stronger controls over NEE deficit than soil moisture. These results were also consistent with a controlled leaf-level experiment demonstrating increasing photosynthesis deficit as VPD increased under constant temperature. The dominance of atmospheric effects over soil moisture in determining grassland response to dry conditions has important implications because it may be more difficult to mitigate these responses with typical management approaches (e.g., irrigation). We found these patterns were consistent across a diverse range of managed grassland operations, but subtle differences suggest that expanding the approach to a wider array of climatic regions and soil types could provide additional insights into how we might avoid the worst effects of future drying on managed systems.