Scenario-based ultra-short-term rolling optimal operation of a photovoltaic-energy storage system under forecast uncertainty

The rapid development of renewable energy sources (RESs) facilitates the coordinated operation of different energy sources to hedge against the uncertain and non-dispatchable nature of RESs. In this paper, we propose an effective approach for ultra-short-term optimal operation of a photovoltaic-energy storage hybrid generation system (PV-ES HGS) under forecast uncertainty. First, a generic approach for modelling forecast uncertainty is designed to capture PV output characteristics in the form of scenarios. Then, stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) is utilized in the coordinated operation of PV-ES HGS for load shifting under forecast uncertainty. Finally, a PV-ES power station located in Northeast China is selected as a case study to validate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method in detail. The results show that: (1) The forecast uncertainty modelling method, which incorporates adaptive kernel density estimation (KDE) and two-layer nested copula, could capture the characteristics of PV output effectively. (2) The proposed sampling procedure ensures the representativeness and temporal dependence of scenarios extracted from the joint predictive density, leading to stability and efficiency in solving the stochastic optimization problems. (3) The SMPC-based coordinated operation strategy exhibits significant superiority in load shifting performance and resistance to risks. The standard deviation of residual load (SDORL) is reduced by 17.5% on average compared to the conventional scheme. Thus, this work provides operators with guidance in the ultra-short-term optimal operation of a PV-ES HGS under forecast uncertainty.