Fluctuations of discharge and hydropower potential in the upper Amu Darya under the background of climate change

Study Focus: The UAD has abundant hydropower potential (HP). This study focuses on the potential sites of small hydropower stations (sHPs) and explores the impact of future climate change on discharge and HP. New Hydrological Insights for the Region: The conflict between water resources and hydropower in Central Asia is a key issue affecting regional development. Developing sHPs provides a new direction for alleviating energy shortages in Central Asia. Combining the hydrological model with the geographic information decision-making method, we have determined the potential sites for ten sHPs in the UAD and calculated the HP for each station. Based on future climate data from two shared socioeconomic pathways and four global climate models, we found that future precipitation and temperature are projected to increase, with precipitation increasing mainly in spring and winter. The average discharge will increase by 19.1-36.6% in the near-term (2031-2050) and by 29.7-106.8% in the long-term (2071-2090). In addition, climate change has significantly increased HP in winter, and the increase of HP in relatively high altitudes is higher than that in low altitudes. This implies that the HP development prospect of UAD is broad in future, but for sHPs construction schemes, it is necessary to further consider the impact on both environment and society.