Taking advantage of opportunistically collected historical occurrence data to detect responses to climate change: The case of temperature and Iberian dung beetles

This study introduces a novel approach to leverage high-resolution historical climate data and opportunistically collected historical species occurrence data for detecting adaptive responses to global change. We applied this procedure to the temperature data and the most comprehensive Iberian dataset of dung beetle occurrences as an illustrative example. To understand how populations of different species are responding, we devised a procedure that compares the temporal trend of spatial and temperature variables at the locations and times of all the occurrence data collection (overall trend) with the specific temporal trends among the occurrences of each species. The prevalence of various species responses is linked to life history or taxonomic characteristics, enabling the identification of key factors influencing the propensity to experience different effects from climate change. Our findings suggest that nearly half of the Iberian dung beetle species may be adversely affected by temperature increases, with a geographic shift being the most common response. The results generated through the proposed methodology should be regarded as preliminary information, serving to formulate hypotheses about the diverse responses of species to climate change and aiding in the selection of candidate species capable of coping with challenges posed by changing temperatures. A novel approach for taking advantage of historical occurrence data to detect adaptive responses to climate change is presented. Our findings suggest that approximately half of the Iberian dung beetle species may experience negative effects from temperature increases and that the spatial response will be the most frequent one.image