Analysis and Prediction of Energy, Environmental and Economic Potentials in the Iron and Steel Industry of China

The green and low-carbon transformation of the iron and steel industry stands as a pivotal cornerstone in the development of China. It is an inevitable trajectory guiding the future of industry. This study examined the energy consumption and carbon emission trends in the iron and steel industry. Variations under different scenarios were analyzed while emphasizing production control, changes in production structure and energy efficiency improvement. The analysis integrated the extreme energy efficiency model. This study proposed methods to enhance energy efficiency in the iron and steel industry. The costs of energy efficiency improvement and production structure changes were assessed using marginal energy saving and abatement cost curves. The findings showed that the carbon emission reduction contribution of crude steel production decline is the highest, while energy efficiency improvement technology offers the smallest, whose contribution, however, is substantial and cannot be overlooked by 2030. Energy efficiency improvement in the Chinese iron and steel industry results in an average unit energy saving and abatement cost of 27.0 yuan. It results in a total abatement cost of 21.02 billion yuan and a potential abatement of 780 Mt. Considering abatement potential, altering production structure offers significantly higher cumulative abatement compared to energy efficiency improvement technology. This is because the per unit abatement cost of production structure change is 702.7 yuan. However, this high cost poses a challenge to widespread adoption. The integration of the iron and steel industry into the carbon trading system necessitates reinforcing market constraints and expediting process adjustments. These steps are crucial to achieving the green and low-carbon transformation of the industry.