Evaluating Predictive Models of Tree Foliar Moisture Content for Application to Multispectral UAS Data: A Laboratory Study

Water supply is a critical component of tree physiological health, influencing a tree's photosynthetic activity and resilience to disturbances. The climatic regions of the western United States are particularly at risk from increasing drought, fire, and pest interactions. Existing methods for quantifying drought stress and a tree's relative resilience against disturbances mostly use moderate-scale (20-30 m) multispectral satellite sensor data. However, tree water status (i.e., water stress) quantification using sensors like Landsat and Sentinel are error-prone given that the spectral reflectance of pixels are a mixture of the dominant tree canopy, surface vegetation, and soil. Uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) equipped with multispectral sensors could potentially provide individual tree water status. In this study, we assess whether the simulated band equivalent reflectance (BER) of a common UAS optical multispectral sensor can accurately quantify the foliar moisture content and water stress status of individual trees. To achieve this, water was withheld from groups of Douglas-fir and western white pine saplings. Then, measurements of each sapling's foliar moisture content (FMC) and spectral reflectance were converted to BER of a consumer-grade multispectral camera commonly used on UAS. These bands were used in two classification models and three regression models to develop a best-performing FMC model for predicting either the water status (i.e., drought-stressed or healthy) or the foliar moisture content of each sapling, respectively. Our top-performing models were a logistic regression classification and a multiple linear regression which achieved a classification accuracy of 96.55% and an r2 of 82.62, respectively. These FMC models could provide an important tool for investigating tree crown level water stress, as well as drought interactions with other disturbances, and provide land managers with a vital indicator of tree resilience.