Evaluation of the Risk of African Swine Fever Virus Transmission at the Interface Between Feral and Domestic Pigs in Lombardy, with a View to Establishing Preventive Measures for Domestic Pigs

African swine fever (ASF) continues to spread worldwide, and has reached multiple countries across Asia, the Caribbean, Europe, and the Pacific, representing a serious economic burden threatening pig health and welfare, as well as food security. The disease affects domestic pigs and wild boar, and in several European countries the disease is endemic in wild boars. The lack of vaccines or effective treatments highlights the importance of effective control measures used to keep domestic and feral pigs separated to prevent the spread of the virus. However, the study of the livestock-wildlife interface is quite complex and has many aspects to consider, including the uncertainty of wild-boar population data. In this study, we determined the risk of spread of the ASF virus at the interface between domestic pigs and wild boars using indicators that can indirectly indicate the presence of wild boars in order to target specific control measures in the highest risk areas. The results of the study were compared with those obtained by Pittiglio, in which the population data for wild boars was estimated using a geostatistical method and similar results were obtained. However, the present study used specific information relating to the wild-boar population and this allowed us to use fewer variables.