Madden–Julian Oscillation in the Context of Subseasonal Variability, Teleconnections, and Predictability

The paper discusses issues related to the main features of subseasonal variability in the tropics, as well as the influence of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on atmospheric processes in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. To identify weather patterns in the tropics, the RMM (Real-time Multivariate) index proposed by M. Wheeler and H. Hendon is used. Teleconnection indices are used to quantify atmospheric processes in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. The analysis of variance leads to the conclusion that there are teleconnections between the weather patterns in the tropics and the mid-latitudes at time intervals of about 5–7 days, which are most clearly pronounced in the Pacific–North American region, as well as in Asia. The MJO effect on the circulation in the Euro-Atlantic sector is quite complex and requires consideration of additional factors, in particular, the circulation in the stratosphere and El Niño events. Using the INM-CM5 climate model (Russia), the potential of predicting the MJO over a three-week time interval is demonstrated. The results are expected to be used in the operational practice of the North Eurasia Climate Center.