Effectiveness of catch-up and routine program of the 9-valent vaccine on cervical cancer risk reduction in Japan

In 2013, the national human papillomavirus (HPV) immunization program began. However, in June 2013, Japan's Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare (MHLW) announced a "temporary" suspension of its recommendation for the human papillomavirus vaccine. Finally, in November 2021, the MHLW ended its suspension of the recommendation of the HPV vaccine. To address the 9-year gap in HPV vaccinations the suspension had caused, the MHLW conducted a program of catch-up vaccinations from April 2022 to March 2025. Finally, in April 2023, the 9-valent HPV vaccine was approved for both the routine and catch-up vaccination programs in Japan. In this study, we investigated the potential effects of the introduction of the 9-valent vaccine on the increased risk of cervical cancer in females born after fiscal year (FY) 2000. We estimated the lifetime relative risk of cervical cancer incidence and death using the improved routine and catch-up vaccination rates after the recent resumption of the governmental recommendation for women and girls to have the HPV vaccination. These relative risks were calculated using a lifetime risk of 1.000 for cervical cancer incidence and death for females born in FY 1993. We predicted that even if a 90% vaccination rate were to be achieved by FY 2024 with the 9-valent vaccine among women born between FY 2000 and FY 2005, the risk would remain higher than for the vaccination generation. Therefore, for women born between FY 2000 and FY 2005, it will be necessary to significantly improve the cervical cancer screening rate to compensate for this increased risk. In this study, we investigated the potential effects of the introduction of the 9-valent vaccine on the increased risk of cervical cancer in females born after fiscal year (FY) 2000. We predicted that even if a 90% vaccination rate were to be achieved by FY2024 with the 9-valent vaccine among women born between FY 2000 and FY 2005, the risk would remain higher than for the vaccination generation. Therefore, for women born between FY 2000 and FY 2005, it will be necessary to significantly improve the cervical cancer screening rate to compensate for this increased risk.image