Association of sex-specific body mass index and waist circumference trajectories with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease incidence: Based on growth mixture modeling

•The BMI and WC changing trajectories were associated with NAFLD in men and women.•The increasing trend was the risk factor for NAFLD onset, while the decreasing trend was the protective factor for NAFLD onset.•Deterioration of BMI and WC status can be the sensitive predictors of NAFLD before its occurrence.•Maintaining a low BMI and WC over an extended period is crucial for preventing and treating NAFLD.