Clinical phenotypes among patients with normal cardiac perfusion using unsupervised learning: a retrospective observational study

Background Myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) is one of the most common cardiac scans and is used for diagnosis of coronary artery disease and assessment of cardiovascular risk. However, the large majority of MPI patients have normal results. We evaluated whether unsupervised machine learning could identify unique phenotypes among patients with normal scans and whether those phenotypes were associated with risk of death or myocardial infarction. Methods Patients from a large international multicenter MPI registry (10 sites) with normal perfusion by expert visual interpretation were included in this cohort analysis. The training population included 9849 patients, and external testing population 12,528 patients. Unsupervised cluster analysis was performed, with separate training and external testing cohorts, to identify clusters, with four distinct phenotypes. We evaluated the clinical and imaging features of clusters and their associations with death or myocardial infarction. Findings Patients in Clusters 1 and 2 almost exclusively underwent exercise stress, while patients in Clusters 3 and 4 mostly required pharmacologic stress. In external testing, the risk for Cluster 4 patients (20.2% of population, unadjusted hazard ratio [HR] 6.17, 95% confidence interval [CI] 4.64-8.20) was higher than the risk associated with pharmacologic stress (HR 3.03, 95% CI 2.53-3.63), or previous myocardial infarction (HR 1.82, 95% CI 1.40-2.36). Interpretation Unsupervised learning identified four distinct phenotypes of patients with normal perfusion scans, with a significant proportion of patients at very high risk of myocardial infarction or death. Our results suggest a potential role for patient phenotyping to improve risk stratification of patients with normal imaging results.