Prediction model for elevated intraocular pressure risk after silicone oil filling based on clinical features

Background To evaluate risk factors and further develop prediction models for intraocular pressure elevation (IOP) after vitreoretinal surgery with silicone oil tamponade to support clinical management.Methods A retrospective study analyzed 1,061 eyes of 1,061 consecutive patients that presented to the Jiangsu Province Hospital between December 2015 and December 2020, the IOP was measured from the preoperative visit and at the 1-week, 1-month, 3-month, and 6-month visits, and the final postoperative visit before silicone oil removal. Four machine learning methods were used to carried out the prediction of IOP elevation: Decision Tree, Logistic Regression, Random Forest, and Gradient-Boosted Decision Trees (GBDT) based on features including demographic and clinical characteristics, preoperative factors and surgical factors. Predictors were selected based on the p-value of the univariate analysis.Results Elevated intraocular pressure developed in 26.01% of the eyes postoperatively. Elevated intraocular pressure primarily occurred within 1-2 weeks after surgery. Additionally, the majority of IOP values were distributed around 25-40 mmHg. GBDT utilizing features with p-values less than 0.5 from the hypothesis testing demonstrated the best predictive performance for 0.7944 in accuracy. The analysis revealed that age, sex, hypertension, diabetes, myopia, retinal detachment, lens status and biological parameters have predictive value.Conclusion Age, sex, hypertension, diabetes, myopia, retinal detachment, lens status and biological parameters have influence on postoperative intraocular pressure elevation for patients with silicone oil tamponade after pars plana vitrectomy. The prediction model showed promising accuracy for the occurrence of IOP elevation. This may have some reference significance for reducing the incidence of high intraocular pressure after pars plana vitrectomy combined with silicone oil filling.