Cool-edge Populations of the Kelp Ecklonia Radiata under Global Ocean Change Scenarios: Strong Sensitivity to Ocean Warming but Little Effect of Ocean Acidification

Kelp forests are threatened by ocean warming, yet effects of co-occurring drivers such as CO 2 are rarely considered when predicting their performance in the future. In Australia, the kelp Ecklonia radiata forms extensive forests across seawater temperatures of approximately 7–26°C. Cool-edge populations are typically considered more thermally tolerant than their warm-edge counterparts but this ignores the possibility of local adaptation. Moreover, it is unknown whether elevated CO 2 can mitigate negative effects of warming. To identify whether elevated CO 2 could improve thermal performance of a cool-edge population of E. radiata , we constructed thermal performance curves for growth and photosynthesis, under both current and elevated CO 2 (approx. 400 and 1000 µatm). We then modelled annual performance under warming scenarios to highlight thermal susceptibility. Elevated CO 2 had minimal effect on growth but increased photosynthesis around the thermal optimum. Thermal optima were approximately 16°C for growth and approximately 18°C for photosynthesis, and modelled performance indicated cool-edge populations may be vulnerable in the future. Our findings demonstrate that elevated CO 2 is unlikely to offset negative effects of ocean warming on the kelp E. radiata and highlight the potential susceptibility of cool-edge populations to ocean warming.