Impacts of future nuclear power generation on the international monitoring system

Many countries are considering nuclear power as a means of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and the IAEA (IAEA, 2022) has forecasted nuclear power growth rates up to 224% of the 2021 level by 2050. Nuclear power plants release trace quantities of radioxenon, an inert gas that is also monitored because it is released during nuclear explosive tests. To better understand how nuclear energy growth (and resulting Xe emissions) could affect a global nonproliferation architecture, we modeled daily releases of radioxenon isotopes used for nuclear explosion detection in the International Monitoring System (IMS) that is part of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty: 131mXe, 133Xe, 133mXe, and 135Xe to examine the change in the number of potential radioxenon detections as compared to the 2021 detection levels. If a 40-station IMS network is used, the potential detections of 133Xe in 2050 would range from 82% for the low-power scenario to 195% for the high-power scenario, compared to the detections in 2021. If an 80-station IMS network is used, the potential detections of 133Xe in 2050 would range from 83% of the 2021 detection rate for the low-power scenario to 209% for the high-power scenario. Essentially no detections of 131mXe and 133mXe are expected. The high growth scenario could lead to a 2.5-fold increase in 135Xe detections, but the total number of detections is still small (on the order of 1 detection per day in the entire network). The higher releases do not pose a health issue, but better automated methods to discriminate between radioactive xenon released from industrial sources and nuclear explosions will be needed to offset the higher workload for people who perform the monitoring.