Hotter Days, Dirtier Air: the Impact of Extreme Heat on Energy and Pollution Intensity in China

This research endeavors to investigate the causal relationship between climate change and pollution intensity, employing a county-level dataset encompassing meteorological data and air pollution measurements from 2008 to 2017 in China. We discern the immediate causal impact of “local temperature shocks” on pollution intensity, uncovering a positive association between climate change and pollution intensity. Notably, this effect manifests with greater significance in economically underdeveloped regions, the northern provinces, and cities not reliant on resource-based industries. Moreover, we disentangle the influence of extreme heat on air pollution into three distinct facets: scale, technological, and structural effects. Our findings reveal that extreme heat augments energy demand, diminishes energy efficiency, and amplifies coal consumption, consequently elevating pollution intensity. Drawing upon the SSP126 and SSP585 climate change scenarios for future Chinese cities in the short-term (2041–2060), mid-term (2061–2080), and long-term (2081–2100), our simulation outcomes demonstrate that the escalating frequency of hot days will perpetuate an adverse impact on pollution intensity across China's counties. This study presents a fresh perspective on the environmental repercussions of climate change and provides theoretical underpinning for local authorities in their endeavors to attain concurrent reductions in both pollution and carbon emissions.