Is eGFR Slope a Novel Predictor of Chronic Complications of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus? A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background. Diabetic kidney disease affects approximately 40% of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and is associated with an increased risk of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) and cardiovascular (CV) events, as well as increased mortality. Among the indicators of decline in renal function, the eGFR slope is acquiring an increasing clinical interest. The aim of this study was to evaluate, through a systematic review of the literature and meta-analysis of the collected data, the association between the decline of the eGFR slope, chronic complications, and mortality of T2DM patients, in order to understand whether or not the eGFR slope can be defined as a predictive indicator of complications in T2DM. Methods. The review and meta-analysis were conducted according to PRISMA guidelines considering published studies on patients with T2DM. A scientific literature search was carried out on PubMed from January 2003 to April 2023 with subsequent selection of scientific papers according to the inclusion criteria. Results. Fifteen studies were selected for meta-analysis. Risk analysis as hazard ratio (HR) indicated a significant association between all events considered (all-cause mortality, CV events, ESKD, and microvascular events) for patients with steeper eGFR slope decline than subjects with stable eGFR. Calculated HRs (with 95% CI) were as follows: for all-cause mortality, 2.31 (1.70-3.15); for CV events, 1.73 (1.43-2.08); for ESKD, 1.54 (1.45-1.64); and for microvascular events, 2.07 (1.57-2.73). Overall HR was 1.82 (1.72-1.92). Conclusions. An association between rapid eGFR decline and chronic diabetes complications was demonstrated, suggesting that eGFR slope variability significantly impacts the course of T2DM and that eGFR slope should be considered as a predictor for chronic complications in patients with T2DM. According to the obtained results, the therapeutic management of the patient with diabetes should not focus exclusively on glycaemic control, and particular attention should be paid to preserve renal function.