Building a Life Cycle Carbon Emission Estimation Model Based on an Early Design: 68 Case Studies from China

The building sector contributes to 50.9 percent of China’s carbon emissions. Due to the complexity of the assessment process, it is difficult to predict the entire life cycle carbon emissions of a building at the early stage of design. In this study, a whole-life carbon emission estimation model for the early stage of building design is developed based on comparison of the standard calculations and an analysis of stock cases. Firstly, the standard calculation methods in China, Japan and Europe were compared, and the boundary of the model was defined in three parts: production, construction and demolition and operation. Second, information on 68 examples of Chinese buildings was collected and divided into a training set and a test set at a ratio of 7:3. In the training set, the relationship between carbon emissions and the design parameters was searched, and a carbon emission estimation model applicable to different stages was constructed. Finally, the model was applied to the test set for validation. The results show that the calculation error of the model is within ±15%, and it can quickly estimate carbon emissions based on the design factors, which is helpful for carbon emission assessment work in the early stages of design.