Global incidence of adverse clinical events in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background:Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is associated with a multitude of adverse outcomes. We aimed to estimate the pooled incidence of NAFLD-related adverse events. Methods:We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies of adults with NAFLD to evaluate the pooled incidence of adverse events. Results:19,406 articles were screened, 409 full-text articles reviewed, and 79 eligible studies (1,377,466 persons) were included. Mean age was 51.47 years and BMI 28.90 kg/m2. Baseline comorbidities included metabolic syndrome (41.73%), cardiovascular disease (CVD) (16.83%), cirrhosis (21.97%), and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) (58.85%). Incidence rate per 1000 person-years for mortality included: all-cause (14.6), CVD-related (4.53), non-liver cancer-related (4.53), and liver-related (3.10). Incidence for liver-related events included overall (24.3), fibrosis progression (49.0), cirrhosis (10.9), liver transplant (12.0), and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) (3.39). Incidence for non-liver events included metabolic syndrome (25.4), hypertension (25.8), dyslipidemia (26.4), diabetes (19.0), CVD (24.77), renal impairment (30.3), depression/anxiety (29.1), and non-liver cancer (10.5). Biopsy-proven NASH had higher incidence of liver-related mortality (p=0.054), HCC (p=0.043), and liver-related events (p=0.050) compared to non-NASH. Higher rates of CVD and mortality were observed in North America and Europe, hypertension and non-liver cancer in North America, and HCC in Western Pacific/Southeast Asia (p<0.05). No significant differences were observed by sex. Time-period analyses showed decreasing rates of cardiovascular and non-liver cancer mortality and increasing rates of decompensated cirrhosis (p<0.05). Conclusions:People with NAFLD have high incidence of liver and non-liver adverse clinical events, varying by NASH, geographic region, and time-period, but not sex.