Predicting solute transfer rate in patients initiating peritoneal dialysis

Background While assessment of membrane characteristics is fundamental to peritoneal dialysis (PD) prescription in patients initiating therapy, peritoneal equilibration test has theoretical and practical drawbacks. We wished to determine whether an equation using simple clinical variables could predict fast (above population mean) peritoneal solute transfer rate without dialysate sampling. Methods We measured peritoneal solute transfer rate, as determined by peritoneal equilibration test using the 4-h dialysate to plasma creatinine ratio, in consecutive PD outpatients attending a single tertiary hospital for their first clinical follow-up within 3 months of dialysis initiation. An equation estimating peritoneal solute transfer rate based on readily available clinical variables was generated in a randomly selected modeling group and tested in a distinct validation group. Results We included 712 patients, with 562 in the modeling group and 150 in the validation group. Mean age was 58.4 ± 15.9 with 431 (60.5%) men. Mean peritoneal solute transfer rate value was 0.73 ± 0.13. An equation based on gender, race, serum sodium and albumin yielded a receiving operator characteristics (ROC) area under the curve (AUC) to detect fast peritoneal solute transfer rate (> 0.73) of 0.74 (0.67–0.82). Estimated peritoneal solute transfer rate values based on percentiles 15th (> 0.66), 20th (> 0.68), 25th (> 0.69) and 30th (> 0.70) could rule out fast peritoneal solute transfer rate with negative predictive values of 100%, 93.5%, 84.2% and 80.0%, respectively. Conclusions An equation based on simple clinical variables allows ruling out fast transport in a significant proportion of patients initiating PD with a high degree of confidence without requiring dialysate sampling. This could prove useful in guiding dialysis prescription of PD patients in daily clinical practice, particularly in low-resource settings. Graphical abstract