A novel score to predict progression in anterior circulation single subcortical infarction patients

ObjectiveProgressive infarction (PI) has a negative effect on functional prognosis. Our study aimed to develop and validate a risk score for predicting PI in patients with anterior circulation single subcortical infarction (ACSSI).MethodsBetween January 2020 and October 2022, we retrospectively enrolled 638 eligible patients with ACSSI. Two-thirds of the eligible patients were randomly allocated to the training cohort (n = 425). Another resampling sample was formed through the bootstrap method and was used as the validation group (n = 425). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify the independent factors associated with PI. Each factor was then point assigned based on beta-coefficient and a risk scoring system was developed. This scoring system was internally validated through 1000-bootstrap resamplings. The C-statistic and Hosmer-Lemeshow test were used to assess model discrimination and calibration.ResultsPI occurred in 121 patients, accounting for 19.0% of the total patients. A 7-point NTS score system based on the initial NIHSS score, triglyceride-glucose index, and the number of infarct slices on axial diffusion-weighted imaging was developed. The NTS score showed good discrimination and calibration in the training cohort (C-statistic = 0.686; p value of Hosmer-Lemeshow test = 0.797) and validation cohort (C-statistic = 0.681; p value of Hosmer-Lemeshow test = 0.451). The three risk levels for predicting PI in the training and validation cohorts based on NTS score were as follows: low (0-2, 9.6% vs. 9.3%), intermediate (3-5, 28.2% vs. 26.7%), and high risk (6-7, 60.2% vs. 57.4%).InterpretationThe NTS score is a valid and convenient risk score for predicting PI in ACSSI patients.