How much can performance measures explain of the between-cow variation in enteric methane?

Enteric CH4 produced from dairy cows contributes to the greenhouse gas emission from anthropogenic sources. Recent studies have shown that the selection of lower CH4 emitting cows is possible, but this would be simpler if performance measures already recorded on farm could be used, instead of measuring gas emission from individual cows. These performance measures could be used for selection of low emitting cows. The aim of this analysis was to quantify how much of the between-cow variation in CH4 production can be explained by variation in performance measures. A data set with 3 experiments, a total of 149 lactating dairy cows with repeated measures, was used to estimate the between-cow variation (the variation between cow estimates) for performance and gas measures from GreenFeed. The cow estimates were obtained with a linear mixed model with the diet within period effect as a fixed effect and the cow within experiment as a random effect. The cow estimates for CH4 production were first regressed on the performance and gas measures individually, and then performance and CO2 production measures were grouped in 3 subsets for principal component analysis and principal component regression. The variables that explained most of the between-cow variation in CH4 production were DMI (R2 = 0.44), among the performance measures, and CO2 production (R2 = 0.61), among gas measures. Grouping the measures increased the R2 to 0.53, when only performance measures were used, and to 0.66, when CO2 production was added to the significant performance measures. We found the marginal improvement to be insufficient to justify the use of grouped measures rather than an individual measure, since the latter avoid over fitting and simplify the model. Investigation of other measures that can be explored to increase explanatory power of between-cow variation in CH4 production is briefly discussed. Finally, the use of residual CH4 as a measure for CH4 efficiency could be considered by using either DMI or CO2 production as the sole predicting variables.