Enhanced prediction of abnormal glucose tolerance using an extended non-invasive risk score incorporating routine renal biochemistry

BMJ OPEN DIABETES RESEARCH & CARE(2024)

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摘要
Introduction Type 2 diabetes is preventable in subjects with impaired glucose tolerance based on 2-hour plasma glucose (2hPG) during 75 g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). We incorporated routine biochemistry to improve the performance of a non-invasive diabetes risk score to identify individuals with abnormal glucose tolerance (AGT) defined by 2hPG >= 7.8 mmol/L during OGTT. Research design and methods We used baseline data of 1938 individuals from the community-based "Better Health for Better Hong Kong - Hong Kong Family Diabetes Study (BHBHK-HKFDS) Cohort" recruited in 1998-2003. We incorporated routine biochemistry in a validated non-invasive diabetes risk score, and evaluated its performance using area under receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) with internal and external validation. Results The AUROC of the original non-invasive risk score to predict AGT was 0.698 (95% CI, 0.662 to 0.733). Following additional inclusion of fasting plasma glucose, serum potassium, creatinine, and urea, the AUROC increased to 0.778 (95% CI, 0.744 to 0.809, p<0.001). Net reclassification improved by 31.9% (p<0.001) overall, by 30.8% among people with AGT and 1.1% among people without AGT. The extended model showed good calibration (chi(2)=11.315, p=0.1845) and performance on external validation using an independent data set (AUROC=0.722, 95% CI, 0.680 to 0.764). Conclusions The extended risk score incorporating clinical and routine biochemistry can be integrated into an electronic health records system to select high-risk subjects for evaluation of AGT using OGTT for prevention of diabetes.
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关键词
Prediabetic State,Primary Prevention,Glucose Tolerance Test,Kidney Function Tests
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