Non Fire-Adapted Dry Forest of Northwestern Madagascar: Escalating and Devastating Trends Revealed by Landsat Timeseries and GEDI Lidar Data.

Ankarafantsika National Park (ANP), the last significant remnant of Northwestern Madagascar's tropical dry forests, is facing rapid degradation due to increased incidences of fire. This poses severe threats to biodiversity, local livelihoods, and vital ecosystem services. Our study, conducted on 3,052-ha of ANP's pristine forests, employed advanced remote-sensing techniques to assess fire impacts during the past 37 years. Our aims were to understand historical fire patterns and evaluate forest recovery and susceptibility to repeated fires following initial burns. Using data from multiple Landsat satellite sensors, we constructed a time series of fire events since 1985, which revealed no fire activity before 2014. The Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) lidar sensor data were used to observe forest structure in both post-fire areas and undisturbed zones for comparison. We recorded six fire incidents from 2014-2021, during which the fire-affected area exponentially grew. A significant fire incident in October 2021 impacted 1,052 hectares, 59% of which had experienced at least one fire in two-to-four years prior, with 60% experiencing two preceding incidents: one in 2017 and another in 2019. The initial fire drastically reduced plant cover and tree height, with subsequent fires causing minor additional loss. Post-fire recovery was negligible within the initial four years, even in patches without recurrent fires. The likelihood for an initial burn to trigger subsequent fires within a few years was high, leading to larger, more severe fires. We conclude that ANP's dry forests exhibit high vulnerability and low resilience to anthropogenic fires. Prompt preventive measures are essential to halt further fire spread and conserve the park's unique and invaluable biodiversity.