Evaluating groundwater resources trends through multiple conceptual models and GRACE satellite data

In this research, three numerical groundwater flow models, developed and calibrated from three equally plausible conceptual models over the Nasia Basin, have been used to assess groundwater resources variations over a transient period. The use of multiple numerical models reduces the effect of uncertainties in conceptual model formulation. All the three calibrated numerical models indicate an increasing trend of groundwater recharge and storage over the period of the groundwater level monitoring. This suggests that the prevailing erratic climatic conditions in the area are conducive for increasing groundwater recharge and storage in the terrain. The high-intensity, short duration rainfall patterns, attending climate change in the basin, enhance high levels of infiltration and percolation, leading to steadily increasing groundwater recharge. Groundwater recharge estimates from each of the models over the transient period appear to reflect the pattern of seasonal variations in rainfall in the region. Data from the models indicates a significant role of baseflow in sustaining perennial streamflow in the area. This presents a significant development in terms of groundwater-based adaptation projects, especially in agriculture. The trend of groundwater recharge in the Nasia Basin is in sync with regional groundwater storage variations estimated from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data collected and processed over the Volta Basin. At the Volta Basin level, groundwater storage variations indicate a strong positive trend of increasing groundwater recharge from 2002 (beginning of the GRACE mission) to 2022 (end point of the data used for this research). Analysis of the GRACE data suggests that there is a cumulative increase in groundwater storage by 30 cm, representing approximately 120 km3 of groundwater over the period in the basin. This translates into approximately 15 mm/year of groundwater storage increase. Thus, at both the regional and local levels, groundwater appears to be responding positively to the impacts of erratic rainfall patterns observed in the area recently. The high-intensity, short duration rainfall patterns appear to favor significant groundwater recharge, resulting in a strong positive groundwater storage signal. The high positive groundwater storage signal suggests increasing groundwater resources potential in the area, indicating promising opportunities for groundwater-based climate change adaptation interventions.