Who benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy in stage I lung adenocarcinoma? A multi-dimensional model for candidate selection

Background: Despite promising overall survival of stage I lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) patients, 10-25 % of them still went through recurrence after surgery. [1] While it is still disputable whether adjuvant chemotherapy is necessary for stage I patients. [2] IASLC grading system for non-mucinous LUAD shows that minor high-grade patterns are significant indicator of poor prognosis. [3] Other risk factors, such as, pleura invasion, lympho-vascular invasion, STAS, etc. are also related to poor prognosis. [4-6] There still lack evidence whether IASLC grade itself or together with other risk factors can guide the use of adjuvant therapy in stage I patients. In this article, we tried to establish a multi-variable recurrence prediction model for stage I LUAD patients that is able to identify candidates of adjuvant chemotherapy. Methods: We retrospectively collected patients who underwent lung surgery from 2018.8.1 to 2018.12.31 at our institution and diagnosed with lung adenocarcinoma pT1-2aN0M0 (stage I). Clinical data, manifestation on CT scan, pathologic features, driver gene mutations and follow-up information were collected. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were performed utilizing the non-adjuvant cohort to predict disease free survival (DFS) and a nomogram was constructed and applied to the total cohort. Kaplan-Meier method was used to compare DFS between groups. Statistical analysis was conducted by R version 3.6.3. Findings: A total of 913 stage I LUAD patients were included in this study. Median follow-up time is 48.1 months.4-year and 5-year DFS are 92.9 % and 89.6 % for the total cohort. 65 patient experienced recurrence or death. 4-year DFS are 97.0 %,94.6 % and 76.2 %, and 5-year DFS are 95.5 %, 90.0 % and 74.1 % in IASLC Grade1, 2 and 3, respectively(p < 0.0001). High-risk patients defined by single risk factors, such as, IASLC grade 3, pleura invasion, STAS, less LN resected could not benefit from adjuvant therapy. A LASSO-COX regression model was built and patients are divided into high-risk and low-risk groups. In the high-risk group, patients underwent adjuvant chemotherapy have longer DFS than those who did not (p = 0.024), while in the low-risk group, patients underwent adjuvant chemotherapy have inferior DFS than those who did not (p < 0.001). Interpretation: IASLC grading is a significant indicator of DFS, however it could not guide adjuvant therapy in our stage I LUAD cohort. Growth patterns and T indicators together with other risk factors could identify high-risk patients that are potential candidate of adjuvant therapy, including some stage IA LUAD patients.