Predicting cervical cancer target motion using a multivariate regression model to enable patient selection for adaptive external beam radiotherapy

Background and purpose: Interfraction motion during cervical cancer radiotherapy is substantial in some patients, minimal in others. Non -adaptive plans may miss the target and/or unnecessarily irradiate normal tissue. Adaptive radiotherapy leads to superior dose-volume metrics but is resource-intensive. The aim of this study was to predict target motion, enabling patient selection and efficient resource allocation. Materials and methods: Forty cervical cancer patients had CT with full -bladder (CT-FB) and empty-bladder (CTEB) at planning, and daily cone-beam CTs (CBCTs). The low-risk clinical target volume (CTVLR) was contoured. Mean coverage of the daily CTVLR by the CT-FB CTVLR was calculated for each patient. Eighty-three investigated variables included measures of organ geometry, patient, tumour and treatment characteristics. Models were trained on 29 patients (171 fractions). The Two-CT multivariate model could use all available data. The SingleCT multivariate model excluded data from the CT-EB. A univariate model was trained using the distance moved by the uterine fundus tip between CTs, the only method of patient selection found in published cervix plan -ofthe -day studies. Models were tested on 11 patients (68 fractions). Accuracy in predicting mean coverage was reported as mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE) and R2. Results: The Two-CT model was based upon rectal volume, dice similarity coefficient between CT-FB and CT-EB CTVLR, and uterine thickness. The Single-CT model was based upon rectal volume, uterine thickness and tumour size. Both performed better than the univariate model in predicting mean coverage (MAE 7 %, 7 % and 8 %; MSE 82 %2, 65 %2, 110 %2; R2 0.2, 0.4, -0.1). Conclusion: Uterocervix motion is complex and multifactorial. We present two multivariate models which predicted motion with reasonable accuracy using pre-treatment information, and outperformed the only published method.