Long-term risks of respiratory diseases in patients infected with SARS-CoV-2: a longitudinal, population-based cohort study

Background In the post -pandemic era, growing apprehension exists regarding the potential sequelae of COVID-19. However, the risks of respiratory diseases following SARS-CoV-2 infection have not been comprehensively understood. This study aimed to investigate whether COVID-19 increases the long-term risk of respiratory illness in patients with COVID-19. Methods In this longitudinal, population -based cohort study, we built three distinct cohorts age 37-73 years using the UK Biobank database; a COVID-19 group diagnosed in medical records between January 30th, 2020 and October 30th, 2022, and two control groups, a contemporary control group and a historical control group, with cutoff dates of October 30th, 2022 and October 30th, 2019, respectively. The follow-up period of all three groups was 2.7 years (the median (IQR) follow-up time was 0.8 years). Respiratory outcomes diagnosed in medical records included common chronic pulmonary diseases (asthma, bronchiectasis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), interstitial lung disease (ILD), pulmonary vascular disease (PVD), and lung cancer. For the data analysis, we calculated hazard ratios (HRs) along with their 95% CIs using Cox regression models, following the application of inverse probability weights (IPTW). Findings A total of 3 cohorts were included in this study; 112,311 individuals in the COVID-19 group with a mean age (+/- SDs) of 56.2 (8.1) years, 359,671 in the contemporary control group, and 370,979 in the historical control group. Compared with the contemporary control group, those infected with SARS-CoV-2 exhibited elevated risks for developing respiratory diseases. This includes asthma, with a HR of 1.49 and a 95% CI 1.28-1.74; bronchiectasis (1.30; 1.06-1.61); COPD (1.59; 1.41-1.81); ILD (1.81; 1.38-2.21); PVD (1.59; 1.39-1.82); and lung cancer (1.39; 1.13-1.71). With the severity of the acute phase of COVID-19, the risk of pre -described respiratory outcomes increases progressively. Besides, during the 24 -months follow-up, we observed an increasing trend in the risks of asthma and bronchiectasis over time. Additionally, the HR of lung cancer for 0-6 month follow-up was 3.07 (CI 1.73-5.44), and the association of lung cancer with COVID-19 disease disappeared at 6-12 month follow-up (1.06; 0.43-2.64) and at 12-24 months (1.02; 0.45-2.34). Compared to those with one SARS-CoV-2 infection, reinfected patients were at a higher risk of asthma (3.0; 1.32-6.84), COPD (3.07; 1.42-6.65), ILD (3.61; 1.11-11.8), and lung cancer (3.20; 1.59-6.45). Similar findings were noted when comparing with a historical cohort serving as a control group, including asthma (1.31; 1.13-1.52); bronchiectasis (1.53; 1.23-1.89); COPD (1.41; 1.24-1.59); ILD (2.53; 2.05-3.13); PVD (2.30; 1.98-2.66); and lung cancer (2.23; 1.78-2.79). Interpretation Our research suggests that patients with COVID-19 may have an increased risk of developing respiratory diseases, and the risk increases with the severity of infection and reinfection. Even during the 24month follow-up, the risk of asthma and bronchiectasis continued to increase. Hence, implementing appropriate follow-up strategies for these individuals is crucial to monitor and manage potential long-term respiratory health issues. Additionally, the increased risk in lung cancer in the COVID-19 individuals was probably due to the diagnostic tests conducted and incidental diagnoses.
Copyright (c) 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY -NC -ND license (http://creativecommons. org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).