Analytical Modeling of Disaster-Induced Load Loss for Preventive Allocation of Mobile Power Sources in Urban Power Networks

Continuous power supply of urban power networks (UPNs) is quite essential for the public security of a city, because the UPN acts as the basis for other infrastructure networks. In recent years, UPN is threatened by extreme weather events. An accurate modeling of load loss risk under extreme weather is quite essential for the preventive action of UPN. Considering the forecast intensity of a hurricane disaster, this paper proposes an integrated probabilistic model of load loss in large-scale UPN and a pre-disaster allocation method of MPS groups for resilience enhancement. First, based on the topological structure and fragility model of overhead lines and substations, we establish an analytical load loss model of multi-voltage-level UPN to quantify the spatial distribution of disaster-induced load loss in the substation level. Second, according to the projected load loss distribution, an optimal preventive allocation strategy of mobile power sources (MPSs) is proposed. The allocation strategy serves as a fast tool for making the best use of MPS and dispatching the limited power supply to most vulnerable areas in the UPN. Finally, the proposed modeling and dispatch method are validated by the case study of a practical UPN in China.