Techno-economic analysis and strategic optimization of biobutanol production from lignocellulosic biomass in Mexico

Recent advancements in acetone-butanol-ethanol (ABE) fermentation, performed as a consolidated bioprocess, have resulted in high biobutanol concentrations of 23 g/L. This achievement has motivated the techno-economic analysis of industrial-scale biobutanol production in this study. To that end, biobutanol plants with capacities of 500 tonnes/day, 1500 tonnes/day, and 2400 tonnes/day are evaluated and deemed economically feasible with positive net present value (NPV). In addition, different mathematical programming models, with and without budget consideration, are developed to determine the optimal locations for establishing biobutanol plants in Mexico. The primary objective of these models is to maximize the NPV of the supply chain while meeting all the constraints including biobutanol demand. The mathematical programming model without budget limitation suggests establishing 16 biobutanol plants, 12 plants with a capacity of 2400 tonnes/day and 4 plants of 1500 tonnes/day, resulting in a positive total NPV of USD 3.57 billion. The model with a budget limitation of USD 0.69 billion suggests establishing three biorefineries with an NPV of USD 0.32 billion. Furthermore, to allow flexibility in deviating from the budget, a goal programming model is developed to minimize NPV and budget deviations. The goal programming model proposes establishing two biorefineries with a higher NPV (i.e., USD 0.72 billion) compared to the model with budget limitations because of the flexibility in deviating from the budget goal. The sensitivity analysis of the model without budget limitation indicates that the biobutanol selling price has the highest impact on the achieved NPV.