Quantifying the costs of diversifying silicon PV module assembly with local economic policies

This study investigates the impact of historical policies on photovoltaic (PV) manufacturing, using supply-chain analysis to evaluate their effects on production in Australia, Germany, and the US. Our results show that protective measures, such as high import tariffs, negatively impact PV prices, particularly in the US, where the market price could surge by 178%, reaching USD 0.659/Wp. The study quantifies the supportive policy financial commitments needed for 600 MWp of silicon PV module assembly: USD 252 million in Australia, USD 249 million in Germany, and USD 266 million in the US over 7 years. Additionally, the model assesses the impact of trade barriers, revealing potential minimum sustainable price increases under a trade embargo, an estimated 58% rise in Australia. These findings provide policymakers and stakeholders with actionable insights for informed decisions on PV supply-chain diversification, considering the economic implications of different policy approaches.