Exploring the characteristics and drivers of virtual cropland trade of major agricultural products in China

The trade volume of agricultural products can be used to measure the global flow of virtual cropland. This paper measures the virtual cropland contained in 68 major agricultural products in China, analyzes the changes in China's virtual cropland from 2001 to 2020, and examines the main import and export agricultural product categories of virtual cropland and the main trading countries of virtual cropland. Meanwhile, according to the LMDI model, the driving factors of virtual cropland trade are categorized into five effects, and the driving factors of virtual cropland trade are discussed in depth. The main findings are as follows: the net value of virtual cropland trade is growing rapidly, the import of legume crops is the main source of the net value of virtual cropland trade, and the virtual cropland importing countries are dominated by European and American countries, and the exporting countries are dominated by Asian countries. As for the driving factors, the quality effect and the structural effect play a dampening effect on the net imports of virtual cropland, however, the dampening effect is relatively weak and cannot offset the promotion brought by the other effects. The economic effect is the main driver of virtual net imports of cropland, and the amount of trade in agricultural products also has an important role in promoting virtual imports of cropland, while the demand effect is not significant. It is suggested that China should correctly formulate reasonable cropland management policies and trade strategies, optimize the structure of virtual cropland trade, guarantee national food security and promote sustainable development.