The Sino-US trade friction would exacerbate global inequalities in achieving SDGs

Trade has given rise to global inequalities in sustainable development, while the occurrence of trade frictions between China and the US has led to changes in the global trade market landscape. Whether these changes will exacerbate disparities in sustainable development between regions remains uncertain. Quantifying the impact of changes in the trade market landscape is of significant importance in accelerating global progress towards sustainable development. Therefore, this article, based on the GTAP 10.0 database and using the GTAP model, calculates the extent to which changes in tax policies affect the global achievement of sustainable development goals (SDGs) by assessing the impact of alterations in trade patterns. The research findings are as follows: (1) The decoupling of China and the US has intensified these inequalities. Economically advanced regions have made significant progress in sustainable development compared to relatively underdeveloped regions, such as the US and Sub-Saharan Africa. (2) Regions closer to China and the US are more affected by changes in trade taxes, with economically advanced regions in close proximity to China and the US benefiting more than those farther away. (3) Environmental aspects of SDGs have shown the lowest growth rates, with marginal variations across different regions. (4) Global inequalities in achieving SDGs primarily stem from inter-regional disparities. Over time, interregional inequalities decrease while intra-regional inequalities increase, with underdeveloped regions experiencing higher levels of intra-regional inequality compared to developed regions. The growth in tax rates between China and the US contributes to a comprehensive increase in both inter-regional and intra-regional inequalities. Based on these conclusions, this study aims to provide a scientific basis for promoting global sustainable development and reducing regional disparities in the process.