Transmission expansion planning in a wind-dominated power system: A closed-loop approach

The current paradigm for the transmission expansion planning (TEP) problem follows an open-loop (OL) approach. This approach first executes an accuracy-oriented forecasting method to predict the available wind power, demand, and spinning and non-spinning reserve (SR and NSR) requirements. Afterward, the TEP problem is solved based on these predictions. However, this OL model does not necessarily obtain a better expansion plan in terms of the real system cost (RSC) against the actual realization of wind and demand. This article contributes to the existing literature by developing a closed-loop (CL) strategy for the TEP problem using a cost-oriented prediction method. In this novel cost-oriented methodology, the RSC assesses the forecasting data quality rather than the statistical indices (accuracy-oriented). In this regard, a bilevel programming model is established to train the predicted data to minimize the system RSC. The upper level trains the predictors for wind power and SR/NSR requirements, while the two lower-level problems formulate the unit commitment (UC)-based TEP and the economic redispatch (ERD) problem. The bilevel programming that contains integer variables at both levels is solved by the reformulation and decomposition (R&D) technique. The numerical results on the IEEE 118-bus grid illustrate the cost-effective advantages of the CL-TEP method.