Should Funding Decisions be partially replaced by Lotteries?

In view of the criticism of the peer review process, some research funding organizations have introduced a lottery element into the selection procedures for selected funding initiatives. The aim of this conceptual paper is to discuss the lottery procedure as an element of a decision-making process in research funding, using the funding initiative "Experiment!" of the Volkswagen Foundation (VWS) as an example. First, the general principles of lotteries will be presented, from four perspectives: the procedure, statistics, economics, and social psychology. These general considerations on lotteries will serve as a foil to review the literature on 'lotteries in research funding'. As an example, the funding initiative "Experiment!" of the VWS will be presented and a design for the ex-post evaluation of the effects of the lottery element in the selection process will be developed. Finally, recommendations for the impact evaluation of such modified selection procedures will be formulated.