Arctic Temperature Persistence in Winter and Spring and Seasonal Forecasting

Persistence is a natural first approximation or a baseline to seasonal temperature forecasting. In the present study, winter and spring persistence in mean montly temperatures in the circumpolar Arctic is explored in long time-series of monthly mean data for the winter and spring seasons. Locally, very high temporal correlations, as well as significant negative correlations are detected Physically, the persistence may be traced to snow cover and sea-ice extent. The variability in these factors may contribute directly to seasonal variability in the radiation budget as well as in surface fluxes, but there are also indirect, but detectable impacts upon regional circulation patterns.