Temporal and spatial dynamics of NOx, SOx and PM emissions from European power plants under different energy transition scenarios

Lowering the use of fossil fuels not only mitigates climate effects by decreasing the emission of greenhouse gases, but also reduces the release of harmful air pollutants into the atmosphere. Thus, the transition to a carbon-free energy system in the upcoming years could potentially have a major impact on lower air pollutant emissions, leading to better air quality and less harmful impacts on human health and ecosystems. Currently, emissions from power plants in the energy supply sector (e.g. coal or oil) contribute strongly to total air pollutant emissions in Europe. Among others, especially emissions of sulphur oxides (SOx), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter (PM) are highly relevant regarding air quality issues. In order to be able to make informed statements about the impact of the European energy transition and the phase-out of fossil fuels on air quality, providing detailed information on the temporal and spatial character of air pollutant emissions in the future are required. However, the future projection of air pollutant emissions from power plants poses a major challenge because it is influenced by various factors like the pace of renewable energy rollout, power line capacities and the phase-out of fossil power plants. This work aims to provide estimates of NOx, SOx and PM emissions from power plants in Europe for the year 2030 and to analyse the temporal and spatial dynamics of these emissions in differing energy transition scenarios compared to current emission characteristics. The energy system model framework REMix is used to model activities of power plants in 2030. It considers the effects of power line capacities, renewable energy capacity increase, consumption patterns and the future power plant fleet of European countries in order to simulate power plant activities in high spatial and temporal resolution. The corresponding emission projections are based on current emission factors of power plants, e.g. from emission reports and information on installed flue gas cleaning systems, and are modelled considering the implementation of European emission standards for power plants in 2030. The results show that ambitious scenarios for the energy transition cause significant changes in the spatial and temporal occurrence of the considered air pollutant emissions compared to the current emission characteristics of power plants in Europe.