Predicting the impacts of clearing on vegetation communities: a model-based approach for identifying conservation priorities in Queensland, Australia

Predicting outcomes is critical for conservation prioritisation. We predicted the areas that are likely to be impacted using a generalised estimating equation from a logistic regression and intersected our model with vegetation community mapping for Queensland, Australia. Under the assumption that areas with a high probability of clearing would eventually be cleared, we identified vegetation communities at risk of transitioning into a more vulnerable status, addressing a critical knowledge gap. Specifically, we identify: 1) areas within the study region's bioregions face the highest risk of forest cover loss; 2) communities may transition to more vulnerable according to their extent-based vulnerability status. Our analysis determined high-risk areas within the study region and vegetation communities vulnerable to changing status. Three clearing scenarios - low, moderate and high - were evaluated. In the low scenario, 0.3 per cent of vegetation communities experienced clearing, with 26 communities changing their status. The moderate scenario impacted 35 per cent of vegetation communities, with 103 communities at risk. In the high scenario (our most aggressive assumption), 45 per cent of vegetation communities overlapped with areas suitable for clearing, affecting the status of 158 communities. We emphaise the need to protect high-risk communities while implementing effective management strategies in areas where clearing poses minimal threat.