Is Winter Cloud-to-sea-surface Lightning Activity over the Mediterranean Sea During 2009-2019 Strongly Influenced by Solar Activity?

Lightning is an essential climate variable that could be influenced by climate change processes. In this study, wintertime lightning data over the Mediterranean Sea (MS) during the period 2009-2019 from the World-Wide Lightning Location Network were analyzed together with corresponding observational and modeled data of solar activity, atmospheric dynamics and seawater chemistry. The results of this analysis demonstrate that solar activity is the dominant parameter that influences lightning activity over the MS. Where, wintertime lightning intensity and frequency for lightning with energy >0.5 MJ over the MS is 237 and 517 times greater during the solar maximum compared to the minimum, respectively. In contrast, lightning activity parameters have a significantly smaller dependence on climate change parameters, including convective available potential energy, seawater salinity, pH and total alkalinity. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that trends in lightning activity over the MS due to climate change will be detectable in the near future.