Health risk assessment of soil heavy metals in a typical mining town in north China based on Monte Carlo simulation coupled with Positive matrix factorization model

The accumulation of heavy metals (HMs) in soil caused by mineral resource exploitation and its ancillary industrial processes poses a threat to ecology and public health. Effective risk control measures require a quantification of the impacts and contributions to health risks from individual sources of soil HMs. Based on high-density sampling, soil contamination risk indexes, positive matrix factorization (PMF) model, Monte Carlo simulation and human health risk analysis model were applied to investigate the risk of HMs in a typical mining town in North China. The results showed that As was the most dominant soil pollutant factor, Cd and Hg were the most dominant soil ecological risk factors, and Cr and Ni were the most dominant health risk factors in the study area. Overall, both pollution and ecological risks were at low levels, while there were still some higher hazard areas located in the central and south-central part of the region. According to the probabilistic health risk assessment (HRA), children suffered greater health risks than adults, with 21.63% of non-carcinogenic risks and 53.24% of carcinogenic risks exceeding the prescribed thresholds (HI > 1 and TCR>1E-4). The PMF model identified five potential sources: fuel combustion (FC), processing of building materials with limestone as raw materials (PBML), industry source (IS), iron ore mining combined with garbage (IOG), and agriculture source (AS). PBML is the primary source of soil HM contamination, as well as the major anthropogenic source of carcinogenic risk for all populations. Agricultural inputs associated with As are the major source of non-carcinogenic risk. This study offers a good example of probabilistic HRA using specific sources, which can provide a valuable reference for strategy establishment of pollution remediation and risk prevention and control.