Synergistic control potential of flue gas pollutants under Ultra-Low emission standards in waste incineration plants

As the dominant waste disposal process, incineration is regarded as the main incentive for the “not-in-my-backyard” syndrome, and faces an inescapable pressures of ultra-low emissions (ULE). Establishing precise response relationships between emission factors (EFs) and full-process influencing factors can provide guidance for the synergistic mitigation of flue gas pollutants (FGPs). In this work, the multi-dimensional EFs of FGPs were identified by initially integrating FGPs concentration monitoring data of existing 1,226 processing lines in China, technologies applied and operational experience (OE), local economic and political characteristics. Significant regional imbalance performance was observed, which EFs in the coastal regions were 3.55–92.39 % lower than those of the inland areas. NOx, SO2, HCl were identified as critical components requiring further reduction under the ULE standards, with exceedance rates recorded at 73.07 %, 38.90 %, and 56.69 %, respectively. An indicative value of 20 mg/m3 for PM is recommended for the control of heavy metals of Cd + Tl and Sb + As + Pb + Cr + Co + Cu + Mn + Ni based on the correlation coefficients of r = 0.28 (p < 0.001) and r = 0.20 (p = 0.002), respectively. Waste composition and OE were quantified as the main contributors of EFs’ disparities by the tree-branching controlled variable approach established in this study. Predictive models for FGPs control process and corresponding EFs were constructed. EFs of nine FGPs in 2030 would decrease by 0.97–65.42 %, due to more complex purification processes employed to meet ULE’s limitations, such as the application of five-stage processes growing from 45.60 % to 58.28 %. While regional imbalance in EFs-SO2 and EFs-HCl were extended with increases from 25.83 % to 33.07 % and 9.91 % to 32.32 %, respectively, due to the consistent disparities of OE and growing heterogeneity of control policies. Enhancing interregional empirical exchanges, reducing the regional market monopolies, and formulating technical guidelines would be beneficial to synergize the reduction of FGPs emissions and alleviate regional imbalance.