Patterns and Dominant Driving Factors of Carbon Storage Changes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under Multiple Land Use Change Scenarios

Revealing the spatial-temporal evolution of carbon storage and its driving mechanisms in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau could provide support for decision making in the protection of regional ecosystems and the achievement of regional dual-carbon goals. In this study, the spatial-temporal evolution of carbon storage in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was analyzed under various scenarios using PLUS-InVEST and a gravity center model, and the driving mechanisms of carbon storage were clarified with Geodetector. The results are as follows: (1) During 2000-2020, the areas of coniferous forest, evergreen broad-leaved forest, closed shrub, temperate shrub desert, multi-tree grassland, and grassland showed an increasing trend, while the areas of deciduous broad-leaved forest and mixed forest showed a decreasing trend. (2) During 2030-2060, there was a decreasing trend in the total carbon storage of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under three different scenarios. (3) During 2030-2060, the area of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was mostly represented by carbon balance (56%), while the areas of carbon sources and carbon sinks showed a scattered distribution. (4) The precipitation and topographic factors with a q value of 0.888 played a dominant role in affecting the spatio-temporal variations in carbon storage in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. (5) In future ecological protection and restoration efforts, more high-quality farmlands should be protected and constructed, which could contribute to the achievement of dual-carbon goals. In addition, the hydrothermal conditions should be improved to aid the carbon cycle process in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.