Analytical Hierarchy Process for Risk Management in the Stabilized Flight Approach - Expert Judgment

Destabilised approaches have been the primary cause of fatal accidents during the approach and landing phase, as stated in (Airbus, 2023). The stabilised approach concept is of great importance for the safe operation of an airline during the approach and landing phases (Acarbay & Kiyak, 2020). The elements highlighted in the approach phases are the runway's dry or contaminated condition and length. In the crew, we analyse their competence, recurrence, and fatigue. Another variable is the type of approach, whether it is precision, non-precision or visual. The external conditions of the aerodrome include obstacles, wind, and wildlife—the type of aircraft, whether light, medium or heavy. Due to the large amount of qualitative information derived from the pilots' experience about risk management in the approach and landing phases, this paper proposes an Analytic Hierarchy Process model (AHP) for threat characterisation and risk analysis to achieve a stabilised approach. The results show that AHP proposed model establishes a new methodology for identifying potential in-flight risks to air operations based on expert criteria, improving the decisions to land at an alternate airport based on qualitative information from expert pilots in the risk management field.